Current conditions suggest selling now offers a favourable balance of opportunity and risk mitigation. While Melbourne’s price recovery is underway, recent RBA rate hikes have introduced caution into the market. Listing volumes are rising, meaning increased competition for vendors is likely in the spring peak season. Capital Gains Tax considerations before 30 June 2026 may also favour a sale in the current financial year.
Vendor confidence has demonstrably improved, with late 2025 seeing monthly sales records set by Woodards Real Estate and appraisals surging over 75% month-on-month into early 2026 (Raine & Horne). However, the February and March 2026 RBA rate hikes have dampened buyer urgency (Domain’s Dr Nicola Powell), creating a more price-sensitive market.
What’s driving the increase in properties coming onto the market now?
The surge in listings reflects a release of pent-up supply from owners who previously held back, anticipating more favourable conditions. This was particularly noticeable through late 2025. Raine & Horne reported listings up nearly 40% since December 2025. While open for inspection attendances are up 3% year-on-year (Raine & Horne), the recent rate rises are moderating buyer enthusiasm.
How do the forecasts for price growth impact my decision?
Forecasts are currently divided. KPMG projects 6.6% Melbourne house price growth for 2026, but this was before the recent RBA adjustments. ANZ has revised its forecast to -1.7% following the March 2026 hike, highlighting the uncertainty. Long-run structural drivers – undersupply, population growth, and rental vacancies – remain supportive of medium-term value appreciation.
What are the tax implications of selling now versus later?
Settling before 30 June 2026 could minimise your Capital Gains Tax liability if your income is lower this financial year. Victoria’s state taxes on investment properties are also subject to potential increases over time, eroding net yields. Negatively geared investors should carefully assess whether the potential for future capital growth justifies ongoing out-of-pocket expenses.
The timing risk
The most significant uncertainty is the potential for further RBA rate adjustments and their impact on buyer sentiment. While buyer activity doesn’t cease with rate rises (LJ Hooker’s Mathew Tiller), the market *does* become more price sensitive. Accurately predicting the timing of peak demand in spring, given these variables, is inherently difficult.
Frequently asked questions
Will interest rate rises cause house prices to fall?
Interest rate rises introduce caution and price sensitivity, but don’t necessarily trigger a price fall. Buyer activity moderates, meaning properties may take longer to sell and require more strategic pricing. The impact varies by property and location, and is offset by Melbourne’s strong underlying fundamentals.
What’s more important: price growth or a quick sale?
This depends on your personal circumstances. If you need to sell quickly, prioritising a shorter campaign and realistic pricing is sensible. If you can afford to wait, aiming for maximum price may be possible, but carries the risk of prolonged exposure and potential market shifts.
How does selling now compare to selling in spring?
Spring (September-November) is Melbourne’s peak season, offering high auction volumes and competition. However, this also means more listings, potentially diluting buyer attention. Selling now allows you to capitalise on improving conditions *before* that increased competition intensifies.
What if I need to buy another property after selling?
In Melbourne’s active market, many family home sellers coordinate simultaneous or near-simultaneous settlements (60–90 days). Selling first removes bridging finance risk, but may require temporary accommodation. Buying first secures your next property but carries the risk of carrying two properties if your sale takes longer.
Questions to ask your agent
- Based on recent comparable sales in my area, what is a realistic price range for my property *today*?
- What is your strategy for managing buyer expectations in the current interest rate environment?
- Can you outline a campaign plan that balances speed of sale with achieving the best possible price, given the rising listing volumes?
This article contains general market information based on data current
as at April 2026. It does not constitute financial, legal, or real estate
advice specific to your property or circumstances. For an appraisal and
tailored advice, speak with a Fletchers agent in your area.