Dropping your price may be necessary to secure a sale now because February and March 2026 RBA rate hikes have dampened buyer urgency (Domain). However, waiting may be the right move for those with positively geared assets or those betting on long-term structural drivers and a projected 2027 recovery (ANZ, Domain).
The Melbourne market is currently balancing long-term growth drivers against immediate interest rate pressures. Buyers have become more price sensitive following the RBA’s early 2026 moves (LJ Hooker), making the decision to adjust pricing a calculation of urgency versus projected capital growth.
Buyer urgency and interest rate pressure
Buyer activity does not stop after interest rate rises, but the market becomes more price sensitive (LJ Hooker). The February and March 2026 RBA rate hikes have introduced a new level of caution among purchasers (Domain). You will see fewer buyers pushing the boundaries of their budgets at opens compared to late 2025.
Increasing listing competition
Vendor confidence improved through 2025, leading to a rise in available stock. Raine & Horne reported that listings were up nearly 40% since December 2025. As more homeowners in the eastern suburbs and Peninsula regions list their properties, your home faces more direct competition for a smaller pool of urgent buyers.
Financial and tax considerations
For investment properties, ongoing erosion of net yields from state taxes may make waiting for growth less attractive. If you are negatively geared, the out-of-pocket costs of holding may outweigh potential gains. Additionally, settling before 30 June 2026 may result in a lower tax liability if you are in a lower income year.
The forecast gap
There is significant disagreement among forecasters regarding the immediate future. KPMG projects 6.6% house price growth for 2026, while ANZ revised its forecast to -1.7% following the March 2026 hike. This volatility makes it difficult to determine if a price drop today prevents a larger correction tomorrow.
Frequently asked questions
When is the best time of year to sell in Melbourne?
Spring (September–November) is the peak season for auction volume and competition. Autumn (March–May) is the second-strongest period. While winter sees lower volume, the buyers active during these months are typically more serious and motivated to purchase.
Should I sell my investment property now or wait?
Wait if your property is positively geared or if you wish to defer capital gains tax. Sell now if you are negatively geared and facing high holding costs, or if you want to avoid a potentially more onerous state tax environment in Victoria.
How do I coordinate buying and selling at the same time?
The most common approach in the eastern suburbs is coordinating simultaneous or near-simultaneous settlements, usually over 60–90 days. Selling first removes bridging finance risk and puts you in a stronger negotiating position as an unconditional cash buyer.
Will Melbourne property prices recover in 2027?
Yes, current projections from ANZ and Domain suggest that Melbourne is likely to outperform and see a recovery in 2027. This is supported by long-run structural drivers, including chronic undersupply and Australia’s fastest population growth.
Questions to ask your agent
- How has the buyer profile at our open for inspections changed since the March RBA hike?
- What is the current volume of competing listings in our specific corridor compared to last quarter?
- Based on current buyer feedback, is the lack of offers due to the price point or the current interest rate environment?
This article contains general market information based on data current as at April 2026. It does not constitute financial, legal, or real estate advice specific to your property or circumstances. For an appraisal and tailored advice, speak with a Fletchers agent in your area.