A decision to sell in 2026, even with a changed financial situation, requires careful consideration. While the RBA rate hikes in February and March have introduced caution and dampened buyer urgency (Domain), Melbourne is still experiencing a price recovery. Listing competition is rising (Raine & Horne), and strategically timing a sale before 30 June 2026 could minimise your Capital Gains Tax liability. Waiting carries the risk of missing further price gains, but also potential further rate increases.
Your financial circumstances are paramount when making property decisions. The current market presents a complex picture – a recovery underway, but tempered by recent interest rate movements. Understanding both the opportunities and risks is crucial to making the right call for your situation.
What’s happening with prices in Melbourne right now?
Melbourne’s price recovery is underway, but the pace is now less certain. KPMG projected 6.6% house price growth for 2026, however ANZ revised this down to -1.7% following the March 2026 rate hike. Vendor confidence improved significantly through late 2025, with agents like Woodards Real Estate reporting monthly sales records. However, buyer urgency has dampened recently (Domain).
How do rising interest rates affect my decision?
The February and March 2026 RBA rate hikes have introduced new caution into the market (Domain’s Dr Nicola Powell). While buyer activity hasn’t stopped (LJ Hooker), it has become more price sensitive. If you’re considering selling an investment property, the erosion of net yields from stacked state taxes is a significant factor. Negatively geared investors carrying out-of-pocket costs may find waiting for further capital growth unsustainable.
Could I save on Capital Gains Tax by selling now?
If you settle a sale before 30 June 2026 in a year of lower income, your Capital Gains Tax (CGT) liability may be lower. This is a key consideration, particularly if your financial situation has changed. Deferring CGT preserves control over when you crystallise the tax liability, but the potential for savings now is worth exploring with your accountant.
The timing risk.
Predicting the precise trajectory of interest rates and their impact on the market is impossible. The forecasts from KPMG and ANZ are already diverging, and further RBA decisions will undoubtedly influence buyer sentiment. This inherent uncertainty makes timing the market exceptionally difficult, and highlights the importance of focusing on your individual financial needs.
Frequently asked questions
Will selling now mean I miss out on future price growth?
While ANZ revised its forecast to -1.7% following the March 2026 hike, long-run structural drivers – chronic undersupply, population growth, and tight rental vacancies – support medium-term value appreciation. Melbourne is also forecast to outperform in 2027 (ANZ, Domain), but this relies on stabilising interest rates.
What if I need to buy another property after selling?
In Melbourne’s active market, many family home sellers coordinate simultaneous or near-simultaneous settlements (60–90 days). Selling first removes bridging finance risk but may require temporary accommodation. Buying first secures your next property but carries the risk of carrying two properties if your sale takes longer.
How does Victoria’s state tax environment affect my decision?
Victoria’s state tax environment has a history of incremental increases, and investment property holders face ongoing erosion of net yields from these taxes. This ongoing cost pressure, combined with potential future increases, makes selling now a potentially attractive option for some investors.
What’s the current level of competition from other sellers?
Listed stock competition is rising as more vendors gain confidence. Raine & Horne reported listings up nearly 40% since December 2025, with appraisals surging over 75% month-on-month into early 2026. This increasing competition means a well-prepared and strategically marketed campaign is more important than ever.
Questions to ask your agent
- Based on recent comparable sales, what is the likely price range for my property *right now*, factoring in the current interest rate environment?
- Can you outline a sales strategy that minimises my risk of carrying two properties if I need to buy again?
- What is your assessment of buyer activity in my specific suburb, and how does it compare to the broader Melbourne market?
This article contains general market information based on data current
as at April 2026. It does not constitute financial, legal, or real estate
advice specific to your property or circumstances. For an appraisal and
tailored advice, speak with a Fletchers agent in your area.