Waiting for a rate cut involves a trade-off between long-term structural growth and immediate buyer demand. While some projections suggest a 2027 recovery, February and March 2026 RBA rate hikes have already dampened buyer urgency (Domain) and reduced the buyer pool that had grown throughout 2025.
The decision to sell now or wait depends on whether you prioritise the current window of vendor confidence or the potential for medium-term appreciation. Recent RBA hikes have introduced significant uncertainty, shifting the market from a period of growth in 2025 to a more cautious environment in early 2026 (Domain).
The impact of recent rate hikes
Buyer urgency has dampened following the February and March 2026 RBA rate hikes (Domain). The buyer pool, which improved significantly through 2025 as rates were cut, is now partially reduced, meaning fewer active purchasers are competing for properties.
Listing competition and stock levels
More vendors are gaining confidence and listing their properties, with listings up nearly 40% since December 2025 (Raine & Horne). Appraisals surged over 75% month-on-month into early 2026, increasing the amount of competition for every single sale.
Growth projections versus current volatility
Forecasts are currently conflicted: KPMG projected 6.6% Melbourne house price growth for 2026, while ANZ revised its forecast to -1.7% following the March 2026 hike. While chronic undersupply and population growth support long-term value and a likely outperform in 2027 (ANZ, Domain), the short-term outlook is volatile.
The timing risk
The primary risk is the gap between current liquidity and future growth. Sellers must weigh the certainty of selling into a recovering market now against the risk of a price correction or more onerous state tax environments in the coming years.
Frequently asked questions
Should I sell my investment property before June 30 2026?
Selling before 30 June 2026 may reduce tax liability if you are in a lower-income year. Additionally, investment holders are facing ongoing erosion of net yields due to stacked state taxes, and those with negatively geared properties may find the ongoing out-of-pocket costs outweigh the potential for further capital growth.
Is it better to sell first or buy first when upgrading?
Selling first removes bridging finance risk and positions you as an unconditional cash buyer, which provides stronger negotiating power. Buying first secures the next property in a competitive market but carries the risk of holding two properties if your sale takes longer than the 60–90 day typical settlement period.
Will Melbourne house prices go up in 2027?
Forecasts from ANZ and Domain indicate that Melbourne is likely to outperform in 2027 as the market recovers. This medium-term growth is supported by structural drivers including the fastest population growth in Australia, chronic undersupply of housing, and tight rental vacancy rates.
How do RBA rate hikes affect my sale price?
Rate hikes generally reduce buyer borrowing capacity and dampen urgency, as seen after the February and March 2026 increases (Domain). When the buyer pool shrinks while listing competition increases, the upward pressure on prices typically moderates, making it harder to achieve premium results.
Questions to ask your agent
- How has the buyer profile and urgency for my specific property type shifted since the March rate hike?
- What is the current ratio of active listings to qualified buyers in my immediate corridor?
- Given my tax position, how would a simultaneous settlement structure affect my net outcome and negotiating power for the next purchase?
This article contains general market information based on data current as at April 2026. It does not constitute financial, legal, or real estate advice specific to your property or circumstances. For an appraisal and tailored advice, speak with a Fletchers agent in your area.