An appraisal from six months ago is likely outdated. While late 2025 saw a surge in vendor confidence and appraisals, RBA rate hikes in February and March 2026 have dampened buyer urgency and introduced new caution into the Melbourne market.
The transition from late 2025 to April 2026 has seen a distinct shift in buyer behaviour. The momentum gained during the rate cuts of 2025 has been offset by recent monetary tightening, meaning pricing expectations must be adjusted to reflect current borrowing constraints.
The impact of recent RBA rate hikes
Rate hikes in February and March 2026 have reduced buyer urgency (Domain’s Dr Nicola Powell). This shift is evident in auction results, with clearance rates in Melbourne running between 61% and 66% from January to March 2026, often falling below the levels seen during the same period in 2025 (Domain).
Increased listing competition
Vendors who previously held back their properties began listing in late 2025 as confidence improved. Raine & Horne reported that listings increased by nearly 40% since December 2025, meaning properties in the eastern suburbs and Peninsula regions are now competing against a larger pool of available stock.
Current value trends
Melbourne’s median dwelling value was approximately $830,371 in January 2026 (Cotality). However, values dropped 0.6% in the March 2026 quarter and currently remain 1.3% below the peak seen in March 2022 (PropertyUpdate/Cotality).
The forecasting gap
There is currently a significant divergence in professional projections. While KPMG projected 6.6% house price growth for Melbourne in 2026 before the RBA hikes, ANZ revised its forecast to -1.7% following the March 2026 decision.
| Period/Metric | Melbourne Clearance Rate | Source |
|---|---|---|
| January–March 2026 | 61%–66% | Domain |
| March 8 Weekend | Approximately 55% | Domain |
| Balanced Market Range | 65%–72% | Industry Consensus |
Frequently asked questions
Should I sell my investment property now or wait until 2027?
Wait if your property is positively geared and you seek the projected 2027 recovery (ANZ, Domain). Sell now if you are negatively geared or facing eroding net yields from state taxes. Settling before 30 June 2026 may also lower your CGT liability if you are in a lower-income year.
How have recent rate hikes affected buyer behaviour?
The February and March 2026 RBA rate hikes have introduced caution and dampened the urgency seen throughout 2025 (Domain’s Dr Nicola Powell). This is reflected in clearance rates, with some weeks in early 2026 falling below 60%, indicating buyers are more price-sensitive and less likely to overbid.
Is the current Melbourne market considered balanced?
Industry consensus defines a balanced Melbourne market as one with clearance rates between 65% and 72%. With rates tracking between 61% and 66% in the first quarter of 2026 and dropping as low as 55% in early March (Domain), the market currently leans toward a buyer’s advantage.
Are house prices still growing in Melbourne?
Annual dwelling value growth was approximately 5.4% to early 2026 (Cotality). However, monthly growth has flattened, with a 0.2% increase in January followed by flat growth in February 2026 (Cotality). Values decreased 0.6% in the March 2026 quarter (PropertyUpdate/Cotality).
Questions to ask your agent
- Which specific comparable sales from the last 30 days justify the current appraisal, rather than relying on 2025 data?
- How has the increase in listing volume since December 2025 affected the buyer-to-vendor ratio in my specific corridor?
- Given the RBA hikes in February and March, how has the profile of the qualified buyer changed for my property type?
This article contains general market information based on data current as at April 2026. It does not constitute financial, legal, or real estate advice specific to your property or circumstances. For an appraisal and tailored advice, speak with a Fletchers agent in your area.