Wait times depend on your financial structure. Those with neutral or positive gearing can leverage structural undersupply for a predicted 2027 recovery (ANZ, Domain). However, negatively geared investors and those wishing to avoid rising listing competition should consider selling now, as February and March 2026 RBA hikes have already dampened buyer urgency (Domain).
The confidence seen in late 2025 has been tempered by recent monetary policy. While a price recovery is underway, the market is becoming more price-sensitive following the early 2026 rate hikes (LJ Hooker).
Rising listing competition
Listings increased nearly 40% since December 2025 (Raine & Horne). Appraisals surged over 75% month-on-month into early 2026 (Raine & Horne), meaning sellers in the eastern suburbs and Peninsula corridors now face more competition for a buyer pool that has been partially reduced by 2026 rate hikes.
Investor holding costs
State taxes are eroding net yields for investment holders. For those who are negatively geared, the cost of carrying the property may exceed the benefit of waiting for further growth, particularly as buyer urgency declines (Domain).
Tax and settlement timing
Settling before 30 June 2026 may result in a lower tax liability for owners in a lower-income year. This timing, combined with the current recovery, creates a specific window of opportunity before the RBA hikes further contract the buyer pool.
The forecasting gap
There is significant divergence in price projections. KPMG projected 6.6% growth for 2026 prior to the rate hikes, while ANZ revised its forecast to -1.7% after the March hike. This discrepancy represents the current market uncertainty.
Frequently asked questions
What is the best time of year to sell?
Spring (September–November) is Melbourne’s peak season for auction volume and competition. Autumn (March–May) is the second strongest. Winter sees lower volume but attracts serious buyers, while activity typically drops significantly from mid-December through January.
Should I sell my home before buying a new one?
Selling first removes bridging finance risk but may require temporary accommodation. Buying first secures the next property but risks carrying two mortgages. Many sellers in Melbourne coordinate simultaneous settlements of 60–90 days to manage this transition.
How do rate rises affect buyer demand?
Rate rises do not stop activity but make buyers more price-sensitive (LJ Hooker). In early 2026, February and March RBA hikes dampened buyer urgency (Domain), reducing the pool of eligible purchasers compared to the rate-cut environment of 2025.
Why is there more stock on the market?
Vendor confidence improved substantially through late 2025, leading those who previously held back to list. Raine & Horne reported listings up nearly 40% since December 2025, as homeowners sought to capitalise on the improving price recovery.
Questions to ask your agent
- Based on current attendee numbers at open for inspections in my suburb, is buyer urgency declining or remaining steady?
- How many comparable properties are currently listed in my immediate area, and how does this align with the broader 40% increase in listings (Raine & Horne)?
- Given the divergent forecasts from ANZ and KPMG, what specific local data suggests my property would outperform or underperform in 2027?
This article contains general market information based on data current as at April 2026. It does not constitute financial, legal, or real estate advice specific to your property or circumstances. For an appraisal and tailored advice, speak with a Fletchers agent in your area.