Prices in the Bellarine Peninsula are currently more volatile than top-performing Melbourne suburbs, as coastal markets undergo a price correction. While Ocean Grove has seen an annual change of -6.19%, select Melbourne regions are seeing sustained growth, with Frankston recording +14.3% annual growth (Cotality, January 2026).
The price divergence between the Bellarine Peninsula and metropolitan Melbourne reflects two different market cycles. Coastal assets are currently adjusting from COVID-era peaks, while specific Melbourne corridors are experiencing a period of strong capital growth.
Bellarine Peninsula price corrections
Coastal markets are seeing a downward adjustment in values. Ocean Grove, the region’s most active residential market, has recorded an annual change of -6.19%, though it maintains a five-year average annual growth of 7.38%. Nearby Lorne also saw median house prices soften by approximately -5.0% over 2025 (OpenAgent, December 2025).
High-growth trends in Melbourne
Metropolitan suburbs are exhibiting stronger upward momentum. Frankston has held the top growth position for six consecutive months with +14.3% annual growth (Cotality, January 2026), and Heidelberg has recorded year-on-year growth of +25.9% (Domain).
The impact of limited supply
Tight supply acts as a buffer against volatility in premium coastal pockets. Barwon Heads, Point Lonsdale, and Queenscliff maintain firm prices due to limited listings and strong lifestyle buyer demand. Torquay is facing similar headwinds as the COVID premium unwinds, but restricted supply is keeping prices stable.
The correction floor
The primary uncertainty is the exact timing of when the Bellarine Peninsula will fully exit its correction phase. While Geelong is transitioning out of this phase with +1.2% growth through 2025 (Bellarine Times), the pace of recovery varies between growth corridors and established coastal villages.
| Melbourne Region | Median Price | Annual Growth |
|---|---|---|
| Frankston | $856,746 | +14.3% (Cotality, January 2026) |
| Kingston | $1,085,527 | +8.8% (Cotality, January 2026) |
| Whitehorse East | $1,239,067 | +8.6% (Cotality, January 2026) |
| Dandenong | $794,550 | +8.5% (Cotality, January 2026) |
| Brimbank | $730,805 | +10.0% (Cotality, January 2026) |
Frequently asked questions
Are house prices still falling in Ocean Grove?
Ocean Grove is currently experiencing a price correction from its COVID peak, with an annual change of -6.19%. However, the market remains the largest and most active on the Bellarine, supported by a permanent population and Melbourne-based weekend buyers, with a five-year average growth of 7.38%.
How does Geelong’s market compare to the Bellarine Peninsula?
Geelong serves as the gateway to the Bellarine and is transitioning out of its correction phase, recording growth of approximately +1.2% through 2025 (Bellarine Times). The median house price in Geelong currently sits between approximately $890,000 and $945,000 (Bellarine Times/WhichRealEstateAgent/HtAG Analytics).
Is the Melbourne market undervalued compared to other cities?
Melbourne is currently seeing a historically wide discount, with the median house price gap between Melbourne and Sydney exceeding $600,000. Melbourne’s median has recently dipped below Perth’s and sits only marginally above Adelaide’s, which is historically unusual for Australia’s second-largest city.
What is the current demand for new estates in the Bellarine region?
Demand remains strong in growth corridors adjacent to the Bellarine. Armstrong Creek, specifically, has seen the strongest buyer enquiry levels in two years as of late 2025 (Bellarine Times), indicating a preference for new estates despite the price corrections seen in established coastal towns.
Questions to ask your agent
- How does the current -6.19% correction in Ocean Grove specifically impact my property type compared to the broader region?
- Which recent comparable sales in the Bellarine Peninsula demonstrate the current price adjustment for lifestyle properties?
- How is the limited supply in premium villages like Barwon Heads affecting the current range of offers being made?
This article contains general market information based on data current as at April 2026. It does not constitute financial, legal, or real estate advice specific to your property or circumstances. For an appraisal and tailored advice, speak with a Fletchers agent in your area.