Whether to hold firm or adjust price depends on your gearing and tax position. While structural undersupply supports long-term growth, February and March 2026 RBA rate hikes have dampened buyer urgency (Domain) and increased price sensitivity (LJ Hooker). Holding firm risks stagnation as listing volumes have risen nearly 40% since December 2025 (Raine & Horne).
Price sensitivity is increasing following the RBA’s early 2026 rate hikes. Vendors who hold firm against this shift risk their properties stagnating as listing volumes rise and buyer borrowing capacity tightens.
Impact of RBA rate hikes on buyer urgency
Buyer urgency has dampened following February and March 2026 RBA rate hikes (Domain). While activity hasn’t stopped, the market has moderated and become more price sensitive (LJ Hooker). Properties that do not align with these new borrowing constraints typically take 4–8 weeks to sell via negotiation.
Risks of increased listing competition
Vendor confidence improved through late 2025, leading to a rise in available stock. Listings have increased nearly 40% since December 2025, and appraisals rose over 75% month-on-month into early 2026 (Raine & Horne). Holding firm in a market with rising competition increases the risk of a property becoming stale.
Long-term growth versus holding costs
Chronic undersupply and the fastest population growth in Australia support medium-term value appreciation. However, ANZ revised its 2026 forecast to -1.7% after the March hike, while KPMG projected 6.6% growth. For negatively geared investors, the out-of-pocket costs of holding may outweigh these conflicting growth projections.
The forecasting gap
Significant uncertainty exists between the 6.6% growth projected by KPMG and the -1.7% forecast from ANZ. This spread makes it difficult to determine if holding firm will result in a net gain after accounting for interest costs and an increasingly onerous state tax environment.
Frequently asked questions
When is the best time to sell a house in Melbourne?
Spring (September–November) is the peak season for auction volume and competition, with Autumn (March–May) being the second-strongest. While February is the traditional restart, activity typically reduces from mid-December to January. Winter sees lower volume but generally attracts more serious, motivated buyers.
How long does it take to sell a property in Melbourne?
Auction campaigns typically run four weeks. Well-priced private sales can sell within 1–2 weeks, while properties requiring price negotiation often take 4–8 weeks. As of early 2026, Melbourne’s average days on market were slightly below the decade average (Cotality).
Should I wait until 2027 to sell my investment?
Forecasts from ANZ and Domain suggest Melbourne is likely to outperform in 2027. However, this must be weighed against current holding costs. Investors with positive gearing may benefit from waiting, while those with negative gearing face ongoing erosion of net yields from state taxes.
How do interest rate hikes affect my sale price?
Rate hikes generally make buyers more price sensitive rather than stopping activity entirely (LJ Hooker). The February and March 2026 hikes have reduced the buyer pool that was expanded during the rate cuts of 2025, often requiring a price adjustment to maintain momentum.
Questions to ask your agent
- How does the current listing volume in my specific corridor compare to the Raine & Horne national trend of 40% growth?
- Based on current buyer behavior at open for inspections, is my property trending toward a 1–2 week sale or a 4–8 week negotiation?
- What is the specific impact of the February and March RBA hikes on the buyer pool for my property type in the eastern suburbs?
This article contains general market information based on data current as at April 2026. It does not constitute financial, legal, or real estate advice specific to your property or circumstances. For an appraisal and tailored advice, speak with a Fletchers agent in your area.