Spring (September–November) typically delivers the highest buyer numbers and strongest auction clearance rates in Melbourne. However, RBA rate hikes in February and March 2026 have dampened buyer urgency (Domain), and dwelling values dropped 0.6% in the March 2026 quarter (Cotality). Whether waiting yields a higher price depends on if seasonal competition outweighs current price sensitivity.
The traditional logic of waiting for spring is currently clashing with a more cautious borrowing environment. Buyers are becoming more price sensitive following the RBA rate hikes in February and March 2026 (Domain).
The spring volume advantage
Spring remains the peak selling season for Melbourne, characterised by the highest volume of buyers and the most intense competition at auctions. This seasonal surge typically supports stronger clearance rates compared to other times of the year.
Current price sensitivity
Recent data shows a shift in momentum, with Melbourne dwelling values dropping 0.6% in the March 2026 quarter (Cotality). While open for inspection attendances were up 3% year-on-year in early 2026 (Raine & Horne), the February and March RBA rate hikes have introduced new caution among buyers (Domain).
Melbourne’s value relative to other capitals
Melbourne currently offers a historically wide discount compared to Sydney, with a median house price gap exceeding $600,000. The Melbourne median has recently dipped below Perth’s and sits only marginally above Adelaide’s, which is unusual for Australia’s second-largest city.
The timing risk
The primary risk is the trade-off between waiting for peak spring competition and the possibility of further price adjustments. While annual dwelling value growth was approximately 5.4% to early 2026 (Cotality), the market is moderating as buyers react to higher borrowing costs.
| Period | Melbourne House Median/Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| January 2025 | Approximately $920,000 | RAG Context |
| September Quarter 2025 | $1,083,043 | Domain |
| December 2025 | $1,020,000–$1,050,000 | RAG Context |
| January 2026 (Median Dwelling) | Approximately $830,371 | Cotality |
Frequently asked questions
When is the best time to sell a house in Melbourne?
Spring (September–November) is the peak season for buyer numbers and auction competition. Autumn (March–May) is the second-strongest period and often sees less competition from other vendors. Winter has the lowest volume, though buyers active during this period are generally more motivated.
How are interest rates affecting Melbourne house prices in 2026?
RBA rate hikes in February and March 2026 have dampened buyer urgency and increased price sensitivity (Domain). This is reflected in a 0.6% drop in Melbourne dwelling values during the March 2026 quarter (Cotality), as buyers adjust to higher borrowing costs.
Is Melbourne property cheaper than other capital cities?
Yes, there is a historically wide discount in Melbourne, with the median house price gap between Melbourne and Sydney exceeding $600,000. Currently, Melbourne’s median is only marginally above Adelaide’s and has dipped below Perth’s.
What happens if I sell my property in winter?
Winter (June–August) is the quietest period by volume. While open inspection attendance is lower, the buyers remaining in the market are typically serious and motivated, which can still result in competitive prices for the right property.
Questions to ask your agent
- Based on the 0.6% dip in March 2026 quarter values, how has the buyer profile changed in our specific corridor?
- How many active buyers are currently on your database for properties in this price bracket compared to this time last year?
- Given the current RBA rate environment, what is the specific evidence that spring competition will outweigh the current price sensitivity?
This article contains general market information based on data current as at April 2026. It does not constitute financial, legal, or real estate advice specific to your property or circumstances. For an appraisal and tailored advice, speak with a Fletchers agent in your area.