Whether holding is worth the emotional cost depends on your gearing status and tax position. While structural drivers like chronic undersupply support medium-term value, February and March 2026 RBA rate hikes have dampened buyer urgency (Domain). Negatively geared investors may find the cost of waiting outweighs potential capital growth.
The decision to sell in April 2026 is a tension between long-term structural growth and immediate interest rate pressure. Buyer urgency has softened following the RBA’s recent hikes, even as listing volumes have climbed (Raine & Horne).
The impact of RBA rate hikes
February and March 2026 RBA rate hikes have introduced new caution among buyers (Domain). This shift is reflected in ANZ’s revised forecast of -1.7% for Melbourne house prices following the March hike, creating significant short-term uncertainty.
Listing competition and buyer pools
Vendor confidence improved through late 2025, leading to a 40% increase in listings since December 2025 (Raine & Horne). Appraisals increased by over 75% month-on-month into early 2026 (Raine & Horne), meaning sellers now face more competition from other listings in the eastern suburbs and Peninsula corridors.
Holding costs versus capital growth
KPMG projected 6.6% Melbourne house price growth for 2026 prior to the RBA hike revisions, though this pace may moderate. For those with negatively geared properties, the annual out-of-pocket costs may not be justified if the buyer pool continues to contract from higher rates.
The CGT timing risk
Settling before 30 June 2026 in a year of lower income can reduce the effective tax rate on a gain. However, the Capital Gains Tax (CGT) event is triggered by the contract signing date, not the settlement date, which requires precise timing of the sale.
The market uncertainty
There is a disconnect between short-term volatility and medium-term forecasts. While ANZ and Domain predict a recovery in 2027, the immediate effect of rate hikes has dampened the urgency seen in 2025.
Frequently asked questions
Should I sell my investment property before June 30?
Selling in a low-income year, such as during retirement or maternity leave, can minimise your effective tax rate. To achieve this, the contract must be signed before 30 June 2026. You can also use existing capital losses on other assets to offset the gain.
Are more people listing their homes in Melbourne right now?
Yes, listing competition is rising. Raine & Horne reported listings were up nearly 40% since December 2025. As more vendors gain confidence, the volume of available stock increases, which can dilute buyer competition for individual properties in the eastern suburbs and Peninsula.
Will Melbourne house prices recover in 2027?
Forecasts from ANZ and Domain suggest Melbourne is likely to outperform in 2027. Long-run structural drivers, including chronic undersupply and the fastest population growth in Australia, support this medium-term value appreciation despite the current caution following 2026 rate hikes.
What are the hidden costs of selling a property?
Beyond agent fees, vendors face loan break costs for fixed-rate loans and Owners Corporation certificates costing $100–$300. Other costs include Land tax clearance at settlement, pro-rata council rates adjustments, and the preparation of the Section 32 Vendor Statement.
Questions to ask your agent
- How has buyer attendance at open for inspections changed in my specific corridor since the March RBA hike?
- What is the current volume of competing stock for properties with my specific configuration in the eastern suburbs or Peninsula?
- Given the current dampened buyer urgency, how would a private sale versus an auction affect my likelihood of achieving the target price?
This article contains general market information based on data current as at April 2026. It does not constitute financial, legal, or real estate advice specific to your property or circumstances. For an appraisal and tailored advice, speak with a Fletchers agent in your area.