Whether to accept a first offer depends on your financial position and risk tolerance. While structural undersupply supports medium-term value, RBA rate hikes in February and March 2026 have dampened buyer urgency (Domain). Conflicting forecasts—ranging from 6.6% growth (KPMG) to a 1.7% decline (ANZ)—mean holding out is currently a calculated risk.
Buyer behavior has shifted since the start of the year. The surge in listings and appraisals seen in early 2026 (Raine & Horne) is now meeting a more price-sensitive market following the RBA’s latest rate hikes (Domain).
Current buyer sentiment
Open for inspection attendance is up 3% year-on-year (Raine & Horne). However, the February and March 2026 RBA rate hikes have introduced caution, and buyers are no longer moving with the same urgency seen in late 2025 (Domain).
The risk of holding out
Forecasts for 2026 are significantly divided. KPMG projected 6.6% house price growth, but ANZ revised its forecast to -1.7% following the March 2026 hike. For homeowners with positively geared properties, holding costs are offset, making a wait for the projected 2027 recovery more viable (ANZ, Domain).
Auction and pass-in dynamics
Clearance rates are currently in the low-to-mid 60%, meaning 35–40% of Melbourne properties pass in at auction. While most of these sell shortly after via private negotiation, buyers typically anchor their offers below the reserve price once a property fails to sell on the day.
The timing risk
There is a tension between supply and affordability. Listings rose nearly 40% since December 2025 (Raine & Horne), increasing choice for buyers just as rate hikes have reduced their borrowing capacity. This shift increases the risk that a property remaining on the market too long may see reduced offer levels.
Frequently asked questions
Should I sell now or wait until Spring?
Spring is Melbourne’s peak season for auction volume and competition, with Autumn as the second strongest. If you can manage holding costs, Spring often attracts more buyers. However, buyer activity does not stop with rate rises; it simply becomes more price sensitive (LJ Hooker).
What happens if my property passes in at auction?
With clearance rates in the low-to-mid 60%, about 35–40% of properties pass in. Under CAV rules, the highest bidder has the legal right to negotiate first. Vendors should establish a firm walk-away price beforehand, as buyers often anchor offers below the reserve post-auction.
Is it better to sell before I buy my next home?
Selling first removes the risk of bridging finance but may require temporary accommodation. This approach allows you to enter the market as an unconditional cash buyer, which typically provides a stronger negotiating position when securing your next property in a competitive environment.
How do interest rate hikes affect my sale price?
Rate hikes increase price sensitivity among buyers (LJ Hooker). While chronic undersupply and population growth support medium-term value, the February and March 2026 hikes have dampened immediate urgency (Domain), which can limit the premium a vendor can demand from the first offer.
Questions to ask your agent
- Based on current local clearance rates, what is the statistical risk of my property passing in?
- How is the recent RBA hike specifically affecting the number of qualified buyers at our open for inspections?
- Given the 60–90 day settlement norm, how should we sequence my sale and purchase to avoid bridging finance?
This article contains general market information based on data current as at April 2026. It does not constitute financial, legal, or real estate advice specific to your property or circumstances. For an appraisal and tailored advice, speak with a Fletchers agent in your area.