Regret depends on your financial structure and timeframe. While ANZ revised 2026 growth forecasts to -1.7% following March rate hikes, long-term undersupply and population growth support medium-term appreciation. Selling now avoids rising listing competition and potentially onerous state taxes, though it may mean missing a projected 2027 recovery (ANZ, Domain).
The decision to sell in April 2026 is a balance between current liquidity and future projections. While vendor confidence grew through late 2025, February and March 2026 RBA rate hikes have dampened buyer urgency (Domain).
Rising listing competition
More vendors are gaining confidence and listing their properties. Raine & Horne reports listings have increased nearly 40% since December 2025, with appraisals surging over 75% month-on-month into early 2026. Increased stock generally reduces the competitive tension that drives prices higher.
The impact of interest rate shifts
Rate cuts through 2025 expanded the buyer pool, but recent hikes have introduced new caution (Domain). Buyer activity does not stop entirely, but the market moderates and becomes more price sensitive (LJ Hooker).
Tax and yield pressures
Investment property holders are facing net yield erosion due to stacked state taxes. For negatively geared investors, the annual out-of-pocket cost may not justify waiting for additional capital growth. Additionally, settling before 30 June 2026 may result in a lower tax liability if the seller is in a lower-income year.
The 2026 price trajectory
Forecasting the immediate future is difficult due to conflicting data. KPMG projected 6.6% house price growth for Melbourne in 2026, but ANZ revised its forecast to -1.7% after the March rate hike. This divergence creates a genuine timing risk for vendors.
Frequently asked questions
Is it better to sell my home or buy the next one first?
Selling first removes bridging finance risk and positions you as an unconditional cash buyer, which increases negotiating power. Buying first secures your next property in a competitive market but carries the risk of owning two properties if your sale takes longer than expected.
When is the best time of year to list in Melbourne?
Spring (September–November) is the peak season for auction volume and competition. Autumn (March–May) is the second-strongest period. Winter (June–August) typically sees lower volume, though the buyers active during these months are generally more serious and motivated.
Will Melbourne house prices recover in 2027?
Forecasts from ANZ and Domain suggest Melbourne is likely to outperform in 2027. Medium-term value is supported by structural drivers, including chronic undersupply, the fastest population growth in Australia, and tight rental vacancies.
How do interest rate hikes affect buyer behavior?
RBA rate hikes typically dampen urgency and increase price sensitivity (Domain). As noted by LJ Hooker’s Mathew Tiller, activity moderates rather than stops. Buyers become more critical of pricing and more cautious regarding their borrowing capacity.
Questions to ask your agent
- How has the February and March RBA hike specifically changed the number of qualified buyers attending open for inspections in the eastern suburbs?
- Given that listings have risen nearly 40% since December (Raine & Horne), what specific features of my property will prevent it from blending into the increased competition?
- Based on current 60–90 day settlement trends, what are the specific bridging finance risks if I choose to buy before selling in this environment?
This article contains general market information based on data current as at April 2026. It does not constitute financial, legal, or real estate advice specific to your property or circumstances. For an appraisal and tailored advice, speak with a Fletchers agent in your area.