The risk of selling now is not necessarily higher than waiting, but it is different. Selling captures the recovery seen through late 2025, while waiting introduces risks from increased listing competition and RBA-driven price uncertainty, with ANZ revising forecasts to -1.7% following the March 2026 hike.
The market is currently navigating a contradiction. While vendor confidence improved substantially through late 2025, the February and March 2026 RBA rate hikes have dampened buyer urgency (Domain). This creates a tension between improving long-term fundamentals and immediate borrowing constraints.
The impact of recent RBA hikes
Buyer activity does not stop during interest rate rises, but it becomes more price sensitive (LJ Hooker). The hikes in early 2026 have introduced a new layer of caution among purchasers (Domain). This means that while the buyer pool improved through 2025 as rates were cut, that pool is now partially reduced.
Listing competition and the buyer pool
Stock levels are rising as more vendors regain confidence. Listings increased nearly 40% since December 2025 (Raine & Horne), and appraisals surged over 75% month-on-month into early 2026 (Raine & Horne). More properties entering the market in the eastern suburbs and peninsulas increases the competition each vendor faces.
Investor considerations and state taxes
Investment property holders face ongoing erosion of net yields due to stacked state taxes. For negatively geared investors, the annual out-of-pocket costs may not justify waiting for further capital growth. Additionally, settling before 30 June 2026 may result in lower tax liability for those in a year of lower income.
The timing risk
There is a significant disconnect in professional forecasts for 2026. KPMG projected 6.6% house price growth for Melbourne, yet ANZ revised its forecast to -1.7% following the March rate hike. While chronic undersupply and high population growth support medium-term value, the short-term direction remains uncertain.
Frequently asked questions
Should I sell now or wait for Spring 2026?
Spring (September–November) is Melbourne’s peak season for auction volume and competition. However, listings have already risen nearly 40% since December 2025 (Raine & Horne). Waiting for Spring may mean facing significantly more competition from other vendors who have regained confidence and are now listing their properties.
How do RBA rate hikes affect my sale price?
Rate hikes typically dampen buyer urgency and make the market more price sensitive (LJ Hooker). Following the February and March 2026 hikes, buyer caution has increased (Domain). This often requires vendors to align their pricing more closely with the current borrowing capacities of the available buyer pool.
Is it better to sell first or buy first when upgrading?
Selling first removes the risk of bridging finance but may require temporary accommodation. Buying first secures the next property in a competitive market but carries the risk of holding two properties if the sale takes longer than expected. Most vendors coordinate simultaneous 60–90 day settlement periods.
Will Melbourne house prices recover in 2027?
Forecasts from ANZ and Domain suggest Melbourne is likely to outperform in 2027. While short-term volatility exists due to 2026 rate hikes, long-run structural drivers—including the fastest population growth in Australia and tight rental vacancies—support a recovery in medium-term value appreciation.
Questions to ask your agent
- How has buyer urgency changed at open for inspections since the March RBA hike?
- Based on the current increase in local listings, how does my property compare to the new competition?
- What is the current preference for settlement periods among buyers in this specific corridor?
This article contains general market information based on data current as at April 2026. It does not constitute financial, legal, or real estate advice specific to your property or circumstances. For an appraisal and tailored advice, speak with a Fletchers agent in your area.