Stock levels in April 2026 are influenced by Autumn seasonality, which typically sees lower competition from other vendors. However, a “two-speed market” persists, with the affordable segment (under $800,000) experiencing oversupply in certain areas, contributing to price declines in those specific pockets.
The current volume is a tension between seasonal trends and segment-specific imbalances. While Autumn generally sees fewer listings than Spring, the affordable end of the market is struggling with an excess of stock in outer-suburban areas.
Autumn seasonality and stock levels
Autumn (March–May) is Melbourne’s second-strongest selling season. It is characterised by strong buyer activity but often features lower competition from other vendors compared to the Spring peak of September–November.
The affordable segment oversupply
Properties under $800,000, including entry-level houses in outer suburbs, are showing mixed results. Some areas have seen price declines specifically due to oversupply and reduced investor activity.
The impact of early 2026 rate hikes
Rate hikes in February and March 2026 have introduced new uncertainty into the market. This follows a period of strong recovery in 2025, where Melbourne median house prices increased approximately 11–14%.
The timing risk
Vendors are currently weighing the strong growth figures of 2025 against the instability caused by the February and March rate hikes. The primary risk is determining if the current buyer pool will sustain prices as borrowing costs increase.
Frequently asked questions
When is the best time to sell my home in Melbourne?
Spring (September–November) is the peak season with the highest buyer numbers and strongest auction clearance rates. Autumn (March–May) is the second-strongest period, offering the advantage of lower competition from other vendors while still attracting genuine buyer interest.
How are recent RBA rate hikes affecting property prices?
Rate hikes in February and March 2026 have introduced new uncertainty into the Melbourne market. This follows a strong 2025 growth phase of 11–14%, and current activity suggests a cautious approach from buyers as they adjust to increased borrowing costs.
What is a two-speed market?
A two-speed market occurs when different segments perform at different levels. Currently, affordable and outer-suburban properties are outperforming the city median, while inner-city high-density apartments have experienced softer conditions and lower demand.
How did the Melbourne market perform in 2025?
The market recovered strongly throughout 2025. Median house prices in Melbourne increased by approximately 11–14% over the year, led largely by affordability-driven suburbs in the north, west, and south-east corridors.
Questions to ask your agent
- How does the current volume of comparable homes in my specific street affect my pricing strategy?
- Which buyer demographic is currently most active for my property’s price bracket given the March rate hikes?
- How does the current stock level in my suburb compare to the same period in 2025?
This article contains general market information based on data current as at April 2026. It does not constitute financial, legal, or real estate advice specific to your property or circumstances. For an appraisal and tailored advice, speak with a Fletchers agent in your area.