A high days on market (DOM) figure in 2026 typically indicates pricing misalignment, increasing the probability that a property will sell at or below the asking price. With 60–65% of Melbourne properties already selling at or below asking price (Bamboo Routes), extended listing times often lead to price reductions to attract buyers in a market marked by short-term volatility (NAB/Cotality).
The rate hikes in February and March 2026 have introduced new uncertainty into buyer behaviour. When a property lingers on the market, buyers increasingly perceive it as overpriced, which often results in lower offers as the listing becomes “stale.”
Pricing misalignment and buyer perception
Most private-treaty sales in Melbourne now close approximately 3% below the initial asking price. Because 60–65% of properties are selling at or below asking (Bamboo Routes), a high DOM suggests the property is not competing effectively within its price bracket. This often leads to a cycle of price reductions to regain buyer interest.
The impact of rate hike uncertainty
Recent RBA tightening in early 2026 has shifted buyer confidence. ANZ Research has revised its 2026 forecast to a -1.7% fall in Melbourne housing prices, citing inflation and geopolitical tensions. In this environment, properties with high DOM are more vulnerable to these downward pressures than those that sell quickly.
Seasonal variations and DOM
Buyers remain active in Autumn (March–May), the second-strongest selling season. However, properties that fail to sell during this window often see DOM climb significantly heading into Winter (June–August), the quietest period by volume. While motivated buyers still operate in Winter, the lack of competition often puts downward pressure on the final sale price.
The forecast divide
The primary risk for vendors is the wide gap between forecaster positions. KPMG projects Melbourne house prices to rise 6.6% in 2026, while ANZ Research predicts a 1.7% fall. This divergence makes it difficult to determine if a high DOM is a result of poor pricing or a broader market adjustment.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current median house price in Melbourne?
As of December 2025, the median house price in Melbourne rose to between $1,020,000 and $1,050,000, following an annual growth of 11–14%. However, the broader median dwelling value, which includes units, stood at approximately $830,371 as of January 2026 (Cotality).
Is it better to sell via auction or private treaty in 2026?
While private treaty sales typically close 3% below asking, well-run auctions in desirable suburbs can still achieve results at or slightly above the quoted range. High-demand house markets with strong school catchments or transport links are most likely to achieve above-asking results (Bamboo Routes).
How have recent interest rate hikes affected Melbourne property?
Rate hikes in February and March 2026 have introduced market uncertainty. This volatility has seen houses underperform in the short term, leading ANZ Research to forecast a 1.7% decline in Melbourne house prices for 2026 due to falling consumer confidence.
When is the best time to list a property in Melbourne?
Spring (September–November) remains the peak season with the highest buyer numbers and strongest auction clearance rates. Autumn (March–May) is the second-strongest period, often offering vendors the advantage of lower competition from other sellers in the market.
Questions to ask your agent
- How does my property’s days on market compare to similar homes in the eastern suburbs corridor over the last 30 days?
- Given that 60–65% of properties are selling at or below asking, what specific data supports my current quoted range?
- How have the February and March rate hikes specifically impacted buyer borrowing capacity for properties in my price bracket?
This article contains general market information based on data current as at April 2026. It does not constitute financial, legal, or real estate advice specific to your property or circumstances. For an appraisal and tailored advice, speak with a Fletchers agent in your area.