Yes, Melbourne downsizers continue to buy on the Bellarine Peninsula, driven by a significant retiree and semi-retiree demographic, predominantly aged 70–79 years. While some areas have seen price corrections, such as Ocean Grove at -6.19% annually (CoreLogic), demand remains firm in premium villages with tight supply.
The movement of downsizers from Melbourne to the coast has shifted from a speculative rush to a value-driven transition. Buyers are now distinguishing between high-growth corridors and premium coastal villages where geographic constraints maintain price floors.
Price corrections versus long-term growth
Ocean Grove, the Bellarine’s most active residential market, has a median house price of approximately $1,039,067 (CoreLogic). While it has seen an annual price correction of -6.19% from its COVID peak, the five-year average annual growth remains positive at 7.38% (CoreLogic).
Demand in premium coastal villages
Demand remains consistently high in Barwon Heads, Point Lonsdale, and Queenscliff due to limited supply and strong lifestyle buyer interest (Domain). These heritage and premium villages typically command prices above those found in Ocean Grove.
The influence of Melbourne equity
Downsizers are entering the Bellarine market supported by price appreciation in gentrifying Melbourne suburbs. Areas such as Preston, Reservoir, and Footscray have seen appreciation of 8–15% over the last two to three years (CoreLogic), providing the necessary capital for coastal relocation.
The supply ceiling
The Bellarine’s price floor is supported by physical geography and Green Wedge zoning, which prevent significant urban expansion (PropTrack). This supply constraint keeps prestige and lifestyle homes competitive even when broader market sentiment softens.
| Location | Median Price / Trend | Annual Change |
|---|---|---|
| Ocean Grove | $1,039,067 | -6.19% |
| Lorne | Median softened | -5.0% (over 2025) |
The correction risk
The primary uncertainty is whether the price correction observed in Ocean Grove and Lorne will permeate the premium villages of Barwon Heads and Queenscliff. It remains unclear if limited supply is sufficient to fully insulate these pockets from broader regional adjustments.
Frequently asked questions
Are house prices on the Bellarine Peninsula still falling?
Some areas are experiencing corrections. Ocean Grove has seen an annual decrease of -6.19% (CoreLogic), while Lorne’s median house prices softened by approximately -5.0% over 2025 (OpenAgent). However, premium villages with very tight supply continue to see firm pricing.
Where is the strongest buyer enquiry on the Bellarine?
Armstrong Creek is currently seeing the strongest buyer enquiry levels in two years (Bellarine Times, late 2025). As a growth corridor adjacent to the Peninsula, it attracts a different buyer profile than the heritage coastal towns.
What is the dominant buyer demographic on the Bellarine?
The market is driven by a dual buyer pool. This consists of Melbourne weekender/holiday home buyers and a significant permanent retiree and semi-retiree population, with the predominant age group being 70–79 years (PropTrack).
Why is supply so limited on the Bellarine Peninsula?
Supply is constrained by the peninsula’s geography, as it is bounded by Port Phillip Bay and Western Port. Additionally, Green Wedge zoning prevents significant urban expansion, keeping the volume of new listings low (PropTrack).
Questions to ask your agent
- What percentage of current enquiries for my property type are coming from Melbourne downsizers versus local buyers?
- How has the -6.19% correction in Ocean Grove specifically impacted the comparable sale data for my street?
- Which specific lifestyle features of my property align with the current demands of the 70–79 age demographic?
This article contains general market information based on data current as at April 2026. It does not constitute financial, legal, or real estate advice specific to your property or circumstances. For an appraisal and tailored advice, speak with a Fletchers agent in your area.