In April 2026, the gap between listed prices and final sold prices in Melbourne’s eastern suburbs, the Mornington Peninsula, and the Bellarine Peninsula is widening due to fluctuating buyer confidence influenced by recent RBA rate hikes. While vendor confidence remains elevated following strong sales in late 2025, the February and March 2026 rate increases have introduced caution, resulting in more negotiation and, consequently, a greater difference between initial asking prices and achieved sale prices. Clearance rates currently range from 61–66% (year-to-date, 2026), indicating a balanced but sensitive market.
The difference between a listed price and a sold price reflects the dynamic between vendor expectations and buyer willingness to pay. Currently, we’re seeing a more pronounced divergence than in late 2025, when rate cuts fuelled buyer urgency. The market is adjusting to the new interest rate environment, and buyers are exercising greater scrutiny.
Why are listed prices still relatively high?
Vendor confidence surged through late 2025, with Woodards Real Estate reporting monthly sales records and Raine & Horne noting a nearly 40% increase in listings since December 2025 (Raine & Horne). This influx of listings is partly driven by vendors who previously held back, anticipating further price growth. As a result, many properties are initially listed with optimistic price expectations, reflecting the gains seen throughout 2025.
What’s happening at auction?
Auction clearance rates provide a crucial insight. Melbourne has run at approximately 61–66% through January–March 2026, generally below the 66–68% recorded for the same period in 2025. The RBA’s February and March 2026 rate hikes have contributed to readings below 60% in some weeks (Domain). While some weeks saw rates as high as 74% (Domain data per Hamkerr), the March 8 weekend saw a rate of approximately 55% across ~508 auctions, demonstrating volatility.
How are buyers responding to rate rises?
The February and March 2026 RBA rate hikes have demonstrably dampened buyer urgency (Domain’s Dr Nicola Powell). Open for inspection attendances across Australia were up 3% year-on-year as at early 2026 (Raine & Horne), but this doesn’t necessarily translate to offers at the listed price. Buyers are more cautious, taking their time to assess properties and negotiate terms. This is particularly true for investment properties, where rising interest rates are eroding net yields.
The timing risk
The current market presents a timing risk for vendors. KPMG projects 6.6% Melbourne house price growth for 2026, but this was a pre-RBA hike revision, and ANZ has revised its forecast to -1.7% following the March 2026 hike (ANZ). This uncertainty makes it difficult to predict whether waiting for potential growth will outweigh the risk of a price correction. The market is finely balanced, and conditions can change quickly.
Frequently asked questions
Will I get the price I want if I list now?
While vendor confidence is high, the recent RBA rate increases have introduced caution among buyers. Expect negotiation. A realistic price guide, informed by recent comparable sales and current market conditions, is crucial to attracting genuine interest and achieving a successful sale. Don’t overprice.
What if I wait a few months to sell?
Waiting carries the risk of further interest rate increases or a broader market correction. However, if you don’t require a quick sale and can absorb holding costs, you may benefit from potential price growth. ANZ forecasts a recovery in Melbourne in 2027, but this is subject to significant uncertainty.
How important is the auction campaign?
Auctions remain a powerful sales method, but a strong campaign is essential. This includes targeted marketing, professional presentation, and a realistic price guide. A low clearance rate suggests the property may be overpriced or poorly presented. A well-executed campaign generates competition.
What impact do state taxes have on selling?
Victoria’s state tax environment may become more onerous over time, historically showing incremental increases. Investment property holders face ongoing erosion of net yields from stacked state taxes. If settling before 30 June 2026 in a year of lower income, your CGT liability may be lower.
Questions to ask your agent
- Based on recent comparable sales in my area, what is a realistic price range for my property, considering the current interest rate environment?
- What is your strategy for attracting qualified buyers and generating competitive tension at auction or through private sale?
- Can you provide a detailed breakdown of your marketing plan and associated costs, and how it will maximise exposure to the right buyers?
This article contains general market information based on data current
as at April 2026. It does not constitute financial, legal, or real estate
advice specific to your property or circumstances. For an appraisal and
tailored advice, speak with a Fletchers agent in your area.
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