As of April 2026, median house prices in Rye, Sorrento, Rosebud, and Portsea are generally tracking below those recorded in April 2025. Data indicates drops of up to -3.2% across these suburbs and neighbouring areas (Barry Plant Dromana, early 2026). However, Mornington is showing signs of an “Accelerating Growth” phase (HtAG Analytics, March 2026), suggesting potential for future momentum. The market is also being influenced by increased listings from short-stay investors due to new levies and rising interest rates.
The Mornington Peninsula property market is currently experiencing a period of adjustment following the significant growth seen during the COVID-19 pandemic. While overall price trends are down compared to April 2025, the market isn’t uniform, and pockets of resilience and even growth are emerging, particularly in Mornington itself. Understanding these nuances is crucial for both vendors and buyers.
What’s happening with house prices in Sorrento and Portsea?
Both Sorrento and Portsea have recorded price drops, aligning with the broader trend across McCrae, Dromana, Blairgowrie, Capel Sound, and Mornington, with declines of up to -3.2% (Barry Plant Dromana, early 2026). Properties priced above $1 million continue to sell well, but the market is more sensitive to pricing expectations than it was twelve months ago. The dual buyer pool – permanent residents and Melbourne weekender/holiday home buyers – remains active, but is more cautious.
Is Rosebud and Rye following the same trend?
Rosebud and Rye are also experiencing a market adjustment, falling within the -3.2% decline observed in neighbouring suburbs (Barry Plant Dromana, early 2026). Auction is being used selectively in Rosebud for well-located, affordable properties with broad family appeal, indicating some localised competition. Private sales remain the dominant method, reflecting the Peninsula’s preference for a more discreet approach.
What about Mornington – is it different?
Mornington is showing a different trajectory. While annual house price change is approximately -2.73% to -4.11% (CoreLogic/OpenAgent), HtAG Analytics (March 2026) places it in an “Accelerating Growth” phase, suggesting continued momentum over the next 12–18 months. Properties are selling relatively quickly – median days on market of 36–38 days – faster than the Victorian median of 42 days. Unit sales are even faster, at 30 days, with unit prices showing growth of +8.8% (OpenAgent).
The real uncertainty – the short-stay investor effect
The influx of former short-stay investment properties onto the market, driven by the Victorian Short Stay Accommodation Levy and increased land tax, creates uncertainty. Barry Plant Dromana noted in early 2026 that listings are “dominated by ex-rental properties.” The volume of these properties, and the pricing strategies employed by investors, could put downward pressure on prices, particularly in the sub-$1 million range. It’s difficult to predict the full extent of this impact.
Frequently asked questions
Will my property sell for what I paid for it?
It depends on the property and location. While the market has adjusted from its COVID peak, properties priced realistically and in desirable locations are still attracting strong interest. Data suggests properties above $1 million are performing well, but those below may require more strategic pricing (Barry Plant Dromana, early 2026).
What’s the best way to sell my property right now?
Private sale (private treaty) is the dominant method on the Peninsula. Auction is best suited for well-located, affordable properties in Mornington and Rosebud, or those with broad family appeal priced between $700,000–$1.2M. Listings above $1.5 million typically use private treaty or expressions of interest.
Are there still a lot of buyers in the market?
Yes, the Mornington Peninsula benefits from a dual buyer pool: permanent residents, including a significant retiree population, and Melbourne weekender/holiday home buyers. Demand remains consistent, but buyers are more discerning and price-sensitive than they were a year ago.
What impact is the interest rate rise having on the Peninsula market?
Rising interest rates are contributing to the increased number of investment properties coming onto the market, as investors reassess their portfolios. This increased supply is adding downward pressure on prices, particularly for properties reliant on rental income. It’s also impacting buyer borrowing capacity.
Questions to ask your agent
- Based on recent comparable sales, what is a realistic price range for my property in the current market?
- What marketing strategies will you employ to reach both permanent residents and Melbourne-based buyers?
- How will you navigate the potential impact of short-stay investor properties on the sale of my property?
This article contains general market information based on data current
as at April 2026. It does not constitute financial, legal, or real estate
advice specific to your property or circumstances. For an appraisal and
tailored advice, speak with a Fletchers agent in your area.
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